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as well as the global economy. according to rex macy it is. he thinks there's a good chance that risk fears will rise and, therefore, the market will pull back. will that be the moment for investors to get in. good to see you, gentlemen. thanks so much for joining us. what are you expecting in terms of this market 2013? >> sure. well, right now we're at 1472 on the s&p. we think it's going to go marginally higher from here, but it's not going to be a smooth ride. we've got a vix at 13 and change. that's too low. that's where the complacency comes from. you see it there. as we move into the debt ceiling debate, it can be far harder to solve than the taxes, we think the market can be down for a while, and before it comes back up. >> so you're looking for a decline, and perhaps that is an entry point for some. do you agree with that? >> i think any decline is an opportunity to buy, maria. i'm very, very bullish on u.s. equities and one of the main reasons i am the u.s. energy story which i think is a story that's not being told as well as it should be. in 2012 the u.s. oil production was
, which we do a great job as the vascular system for the global economy. they build large fluid systems for petrochemical companies, energy companies, as the economy comes in, as industrial production comes back, they're well positioned. so, we're pretty constructive on the asset class, particularly because a lot of people don't seem to be all that constructive on the asset class. >> steve sax, what about you? where are you seeing the flow? what are investors particularly grav stating towards these days? >> it's till equities and all of last year, credential the first couple weeks of this year, more in particular, though, small caps and midcaps. we've started to see them out-perform large caps. that was the story of 2012, with particularly the mega caps. so, if you look at the russell 2000, the mid cap 400 versus say the s&p 500, we've not only seen more flows in those areas, but we're actually seeing the out-performance, which is also a theme i think probably continues, certainly in the first half of this year. fundamentals are really strong in u.s. equities, and that translates well g
of the economy. a discussion about the fed earlier in terms of the beige book numbers. what do you think that tells us on where we are in the economy? >> look at numbers of the last week or two, retail production numbers for december, and they were actually pretty good. of course, the employment numbers we already know were soiled, and this is in a period where the uncertainty over the fiscal cliff was reaching a maximum. you know, maria, you think that's pretty encouraging that the economy has managed to cope with a high level of uncertainty. now the thing that kind of bothers me though is i'm a little bit worried that this coping is flipping over to complacency. the vix is now at a six-year low, and it tells me that the market is discounting 100% probability that we get through the debt ceiling without any trouble. that seems too high to me. >> so do you think the market is expecting that? i mean, when would you expect a big change in terms of the interest rate scenario? >> in terms of the interest rate scenario, probably nothing this year. i mean, we're at least a couple years away fr
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